Barack Obama has consistently run on a platform of ‘change.’ Often he neglected to define the change he would bring to the White House exactly, which enabled moderates, centrists, moderate conservatives, liberals and moderate liberals to adopt their own, often differing, views.

There are several kinds of change politicians can run on. The first change is change in style. This means that one can be more or less aggressive in the way one presents oneself and in the way one approaches one’s opponents and critics. Change would, in this regard, be that Obama would be less partisan than George W. Bush, and more respectful of ideological opponents, in this case Republicans.

The second kind of change is policy wise. In this case, this could mean a variety of different paths Obama could pursue. He could rule like a true moderate, a moderate liberal, or even a true, old school progressive who wants to transform society, not Washington D.C.

And this is exactly the kind of change, change in policy, that is unclear about Obama. His record is distinctly liberal. His promises during the campaign, however, are far less liberal, possibly even moderate liberal. The question is how he will behave as a president; as his record and past associations indicate, or as he said he would this year?

In this regard, it is important to look at the other branches of government, and then especially Congress. The House of Representatives and the Senate are key to how Obama will govern, I think. If we have found out anything about Obama in recent months it is that he is extremely ambitious and extremely focused on his own political survival. If Congress would have a strong Republican presence, Obama would undoubtedly be a president quite similar to Bill Clinton; moderate liberal, or left-of-center.

But that is not what we are looking at right now. Instead, Congress will be dominated by Democrats, who will create a hegemony of at least two years, possibly more if they behave and perform reasonably well. This means that Obama will not be forced to take Republicans’ concerns and plans into consideration if he doesn’t want to. This could allow Obama to be who his record indicates he is: a true blue liberal.

In this regard, I think the following scenario to be highly likely: Obama will be liberal, but let Congress design most laws. He will simply accept them, every now and then ‘forcing’ them to tone the progressivism down a bit. Democrats in Congress will pretend to put up a fight every now and then, but it will mostly be a case of keeping up appearances: Obama will have to present himself as a moderate to at least a significant degree if he wants to win reelection.

The coming two and possibly four years will be a lot of fun for progressive Democrats, highly frustrating for true conservative Republicans, and interesting for political observers such as myself. The first two years will undoubtedly bring forth many liberal changes, the only question is who will behave more liberal; Obama or Congress.

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