For instance, 24.4% Republican voters want Governor Sarah Palin to be the Republican candidate for president in 2012. Only 13.4% of all voters agree. 

At the same time, Governor Mitt Romney ranks second among all voters, six points behind Palin, but leads among all voters (be it barely).

Among conservatives, both represent an entirely different faction: Palin is the Christian conservative while Romney is the darling of (elite and well educated) fiscal conservatives. These two battled it out earlier this year with fiscal conservatives favoring Romney, Christian conservatives supporting Governor Mike Huckabee, and the party ending up with Senator John McCain as the compromise candidate.

A compromise figure not able to make life truly difficult for now president-elect Barack Obama.

Most remarkable about the figures, however, is that there is a third candidate who does relatively better (meaning: smaller gap) among all voters than among Republicans: Governor Bobby Jindal. Jindal has quite a low profile nationally, yet he already ranks third in both categories. When all voters are included, the gap between him and Romney is only 1.2%, which is remarkable. 

Huckabee fares less well; he is fourth with only 9.7% among Republicans and 8.0% among all voters.

This while Huckabee was the favorite of the Christian conservative base.

So what happened to Huckabee? Palin. Although Huckabee could count on the support of Christian conservatives during the primaries, they all flocked to Palin during the general election campaign. Palin became their candidate, their darling even. The defeat made her more not less popular among this group of conservative voters for they consider her a martyr. 

The above means that the Republican Party could very well nominate a person who is deemed anti-intellectual, simple, naive and overly socially conservative in 2012 or that the war between the fiscal conservative and social conservative base will continue with at least one side staying home on election day, thereby ensuring Obama a second term.

That is, unless Palin can improve her image, studies hard and convince libertarian and fiscal conservatives that she is more than just a socon (unlikely). Or if Romney will succeed in courting Evangelicals and convincing them that either his Mormon faith should not be a problem to them (unlikely) or that his faith and their faith teach the same basic principles and values (less unlikely, but not altogether likely). 

Of course there is a third option, an option I consider most likely and, especially, most in the interest of the Republican Party: that conservative voters will agree on a compromise candidate who endorses conservative views in most ways. In other words, a person who is a convinced social conservative (yet not overly so, for it would make it easy to destroy a candidate who is as socially conservative and as vocal about it as Palin and Huckabee are), who also has a track record of fiscal conservatism and who sympathizes with many libertarian policies. 

At this moment, it seems to me that neither Huckabee nor Palin nor Romney fit the bill (although Romney would certainly be a better choice than the other two). Jindal, however, does.

For Jindal, 2008 and especially 2009 offer a tremendous opportunity to raise his profile nationally, to court conservatives of all stripes and to implement policies rooted in conservatism. He will have to use his time in Louisiana in order to show voters that conservative policies work and improve their daily lives. He he has already done so to a tremendous degree, but the most difficult times are ahead of him. The recession is likely to worsen in the coming months with Americans in all states suffering financially. Jindal will have to control the damage and improve his state at the same time. 

If he does, and if he reaches out to conservative aaries in 2012. ctivists, think tankers, academics and journalists, he could very well be the Republican to beat in late 2011, early 2012.

©2008 PoliGazette. All Rights Reserved.

So who do right of center voters want to have in the 2012 race?  Read on to find out…

Per Gallup, the three leading Republican candidates are Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Mike Huckabee, all of whom openly confess having strong religious faith.  In fact, so strong is the preference for socially conservative candidates that no other candidate was desired by more than 50% of those polled.

Sounds like Ms. Parker is the one out of step with real Republican voters, not the social conservatives she mocks for their age, traditions, and Christian faith.

©2008 PoliGazette. All Rights Reserved.

Joe Scarborough also asked Romney whether he thought McCain still had a chance. “I suspect that this race will be very close at the end,” Romney, who was the favorite of the Republican Party’s fiscal conservative base said.

“I’m certainly planning on seeing McCain win this thing,” Romney said.

Scarborough then talked about McCain’s inability to keep up with Obama’s spending behavior. Doesn’t McCain’s lack of money prove that he can count on less (passionate) support?, Scarborough asked.

“Well, no,” Romney answered, “it actually speaks volumes about Barack Obama’s unwillingness to abide by principles when there’s an opportunity for political gain.”

“Both candidates agreed they would use public financing and then Barack Obama changed his mind, changed his word if you will, and said ‘OK, I’m going to raise private money.’ John McCain could raise private money but John McCain, as one of the authors of McCain-Feingold, decided to stick to public financing… I think that’s a message people will understand.”

In the end, Romney said, “there’s no question that Obama’s economic plans would prolong a recession, make it more difficult for us to come out of a recession.” Since McCain is articulating this very clearly to voters now, Romney believes that he will make a comeback in the coming days.

“My concern is this; there is not going to be a lot of wealth to spread around” when Obama pursues his economic plans, Romney said. “His plans slow down the economy, if you raise taxes on individuals… if you raise taxes on companies, you are not going to grow this economy,” he added.

Watch it:

©2008 PoliGazette. All Rights Reserved.

If you want to know the latest political advice from Palestinian group blog KABOBfest on whether to vote for Democratic candidate Barack Obama or Republican John McCain, the answer is clear: Don't vote.

Suggesting Arab Americans not vote on November 4, QuiQui writes:

How about we hear not one. single. word. of complaint for the next four years from those who are about to vote the trash in next Tuesday to replace the garbage they voted in eight years ago?

Arab Americans were asked vote for George W. Bush in 2000 in swing states like Florida by the same people now asking that Arab Americans living in swing states vote for Obama.

How about the Arab American leadership like those from the Arab American Institute stop trying to lead.

How about Arab Americans sit this one out. How about Arab Americans not vote. That way, this time, you can have every right to complain when Obama or McCain screw everything up.

How about, instead of the call to play ping-pong between Republicans and Democrats every four years, we hear calls to spend our energies on imagining and living under genuine democracy. Ways that do not rely on “leaders” to partake in the impossibility of “representation.” Ways that encourage us to do politics every day — not once every two or four years.

Electoral politics is not politics, yet we allow it to the be beginning and the end of our democracy oligarchy. Asking that everyone participate in this system is not going to change it any. On the contrary, it only legitimizes it and renders it our only thinkable solution.

Canadian blogger Darryl Wolk disagrees, though questions whether people are tired of Obamamania.

Darryl is glad the U.S. election nears to a close:

In 5 days, I will no longer be writing about the US election after blogging about it since 2006. It has been a historic primary. An African-American candidate for President. Two prominent women Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton taking center stage and breaking down barriers for women. A slate of political all stars running in both primaries that included Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards and Joe Biden. We have seen endorsements, debates, speeches, a revolutionary internet campaign and a presidential election that really started following the last mid-term race in 2006. Millions have been raised and spent. The campaigning is basically over. The focus now for both sides must be getting out the vote on the ground, particularily in the swing states. This campaign has been exciting and turnout is going to be extremely high.

How do Wolk and Canadians feel about McCain and Obama?

Read on:

John McCain says he is running on change and that he is different from Bush. His policies are the same and his campaign has been nothing but mudslinging and negative attacks. Obama wants to build America up while McCain is focused on tearing Obama down. His low road attacks are not based in truth and his polling numbers show that Americans have rejected the recycled “liberal”, “tax and spend”, “socialist” and “weak on national security” labels that have been used in past campaigns. I have not seen one person comment about how George W. Bush has done a good job or has been a great president. People on the right and left are united in calling Bush one of the worst presidents in United States history. Unfortunately, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result. It is time for real change.

Barack Obama has been tested during these past two years. He has made an immediate impact in the senate dealing with arms control and ethics. He has experience in the state legislature. His campaign has been about unity and moving America forward. He offers the change that Americans and the world are demanding. His platform (or the video last night) shows that many of his policies are no different than what Conservatives are offering in Canada. Unlike McCain, we know exactly where we stands. He is running on the economy, an area McCain admits he is not up to speed on.

As for the future, will Sarah Palin run for the presidency in 2012? Thomas Ash of British-American project openUSA ponders that intellectual question over several paragraphs, with the following conclusion and an assumption about next week's victory:

Assuming McCain loses, she is bound to attract some of the blame. Her popularity in Alaska shows signs of decreasing from its (very high) initial base, and events there may yet damage her. She will face formidable opponents, possibly including a better-funded Mike Huckabee and a re-energised Mitt Romney (whose former staffers have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, according to the American Spectator). And, awkward though it is to say so, her looks - which constitute a significant part of her appeal for some people - will begin to fade as she goes from 44 to 48.

Should Arab Americans stay away from the polls?

Will Obama occupy the White House?

And will maverick and hot mama Palin lose her looks by 2012?

Thoughts?

In all, the night was somewhat less charged than the previous; the night that featured Governor Sarah Palin saw speeches from Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and the Alaskan Governor herself. Last night featured a handful of moderately important senators and governors, but the speech by Cindy McCain who would be first lady sucked all of the oxygen out of the room. It nearly put me to sleep. Mrs. McCain clutched the microphone tightly with both hands and read her speech awkwardly from teleprompters telling the audience about her warm feelings about her husband. McCain ran in 2000 and had an extended run, obviously in this primary season, yet Cindy McCain is still not ready for prime time.

John McCain’s speech was direct and outlined his case for President. His record of military service and sacrifice for country is incomparable, he says, to that of the “community organizer” from Chicago.

For some time, I was confused by the McCain campaign’s lack of ability, or want, to match Barack Obama’s brilliant and attention-gathering campaign. Why was McCain not responding directly with massive rallies, trans-Atlantic trips, and buzz-generating speeches? Was it a factor of the campaign’s failure to reach voters? Perhaps. But, I think that the McCain campaign may have had a strategy of letting Obama’s star burn bright while they would sustain and build their campaign reliably and with a moderate tone. Why would they do this? I think that John McCain’s campaign did this purposefully to allow the election to become a referendum on Obama. If Obama got more attention, the question would be “is this the change we’re looking for and do we take a chance on him”. The difference in experience between Obama and McCain is striking and therefore when the ballot question has been defined, McCain is able to step in to answer the specific question they intended to shape on Barack Obama.

In my opinion, the most effective lines from McCain’s speech were:

“I fell in love with my country when I was a prisoner in someone else’s. I loved it not just for the many comforts of life here. I loved it for its decency; for its faith in the wisdom, justice and goodness of its people. I loved it because it was not just a place, but an idea, a cause worth fighting for. I was never the same again. I wasn’t my own man anymore. I was my country’s.

“I’m not running for president because I think I’m blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save our country in its hour of need. My country saved me. My country saved me, and I cannot forget it. And I will fight for her for as long as I draw breath, so help me God.”

The speech ended using a method that caused a crescendo of applause for the Senator:

“I’m going to fight for my cause every day as your President. I’m going to fight to make sure every American has every reason to thank God, as I thank Him: that I’m an American, a proud citizen of the greatest country on earth, and with hard work, strong faith and a little courage, great things are always within our reach.”

crowd rises to their feet and applauds.

“Fight with me.”

louder

“Fight with me.”

almost literally says “louder”

“Fight for what’s right for our country.”

“Fight” is an action word that evokes a call to action and a sense that McCain and the crowd are doing this together.

“Fight for the ideals and character of a free people.”

Each “fight for” line enunciates values important to Republicans and to those who can put McCain over the top in November and elect him President in November.

“Fight for our children’s future.”

“Fight for justice and opportunity for all.”

“Stand up to defend our country from its enemies.”

“Stand up for each other; for beautiful, blessed, bountiful America”

Fight, now stand up. Literally stand up. Cheering louder.

“Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight.”

Elections are about engagement for participating in making a change that one can believe in. Each “stand up” emphasized with pause to get the crowd to get even louder and build excitement.

“Nothing is inevitable here. We’re Americans, and we never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.”

Message of unity and common purpose in order to act together to elect McCain.

“Thank you, and God Bless you.”

Here are some of my photos from McCain’s speech last night:

Being a non-partisan international observer of the process was still quite exciting. Americans do these events and speeches like nobody else. Barack Obama addressed a stadium of 80,000 in Denver and both racked in millions of viewers. McCain, however, had a slight edge in TV viewership.

5:58pm — Call to order
8:14pm — Mitt Romney
8:34pm — Mike Huckabee
9:04pm — Rudy Giuliani
9:20pm — Gov. Linda Lingle
9:37pm — Gov. Sarah Palin

According to Canadian Darryl Wolk McCain should pick the current Secretary of State Rice. He argues:

McCain is a maverick and often defies his own party, but after gaining some ground at the recent faith discussions, picking (Tom) Ridge or (Joe) Lieberman could be very risky. I would say odds are increasing for Huckabee or a candidate like Gingrich who are more likely to be accepted by the base. I still strongly think McCain's best option is Ms. Rice.

In this term's hotly contested elections, Wolk explains:

McCain could be in a strong position to name a quality VP choice and go into the Republican convention with strong momentum leading into what will be the crunch time of this campaign. Despite the unpopularity of the Republican Party, McCain has hung in there in terms of polls against “the biggest celebrity in the world”. The fact that he is close to the margin of error and still very competitive in swing states means that this presidential race is still too close to call.

Wolk also lists all the likely candidates, who include Tim Pawlenty, Charlie Crist, Sarah Palin, Joe Lieberman, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul and Tom Ridge, to name a few.

Weighing Rice's cons and pros, the blogger says:

Pro - I would argue the strongest chance for a female President in the near future. Seen as a moderate within the Bush administration. Great credentials and experience in foreign affairs. Young and African American. Probably the highest profile pick available.
Con - Tarnished by George W. Bush and his record. Seen as a failure by some as Secretary of State.

A Political Glimpse from Ireland announces that McCain has already selected Governor Romney as his running mate. The blogger notes:

I personally don’t think this is a bad choice considering Senator Obama is favored in most polls for handling the economy better than Senator McCain. A few frequent commentors on this blog have argued whether VP’s actually make the difference in an election however I think it comes down to perception… if people believe a VP Romney will be right there by McCain side’s advocating economic policies to fix the current economic recession then maybe McCain is the right person to vote for?

The good news for Senator McCain today is that his most likely choice is former Governor Romney according to Mark Halperin at Time:

2 Republican sources say McCain has apparently settled on Romney as his pick, but no offer has been made.

I personally don’t think this is a bad choice considering Senator Obama is favored in most polls for handling the economy better than Senator McCain. A few frequent commentors on this blog have argued whether VP’s actually make the difference in an election however I think it comes down to perception… if people believe a VP Romney will be right there by McCain side’s advocating economic policies to fix the current economic recession then maybe McCain is the right person to vote for? I honestly hope it is not governor Romney because I actually like the  guy and I think a fair number of independents would like him as well especially considering his success in my home state of Massachusetts. He turned the economy around, and that is one fact we democrats cannot argue.

I am going to keep my fingers crossed that former Governor Romney is not the guy because a Biden vs. Romney debate would not end well for Biden. Anyway, onto happier news, the DNC is next week and if you are not in America at the moment and wondering when to switch on the TV, you can view the DNC schedule here. The DNC is going to be one big event considering the lineup of speakers, I think it is going to be the biggest political event this year even more so than the RNC. Let’s face it, is there anyone that is going to top Senator Obama’s acceptance speech at the RNC? I don’t think so.

Senator McCain’s camp concurs releasing a new memo:

Obama’s stadium address on Thursday - the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have A Dream” speech - will result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage. On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama’s place in history. For example, The Associated Press today published an article comparing the historic nature of the addresses - a week before Obama’s speech. This coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls.

We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.

This is good news going into this weekend for those Democrats who have been worrying about the narrowing polls, next week is going to be one hell of a week so make sure you get plenty of rest this weekend. Don’t forget the Obama VP announcement is tomorrow!

Among such sites is Who the World Wants, which aims polls non-Americans, giving them the choice between selecting Republican Party candidate John McCain or Democratic Party nominee Barack Obama.

“This website is intended to finding out who the world outside the United States of America wants as a President for your country. Please, if you are a United States Citizen, DO NOT VOTE (you get to vote for real),” says the announcement on the site.

So far, the results show Obama as a global favourite, with 1,032 votes in his favour, against McCain's 685 global fans.

Another site sharing a similar idea is Who Would the World Elect? On this site, Republican Ron Paul is the forerunner, with close to 67,000 votes from around the world. Obama is a far second with 21,000 votes while former Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton is a third, with around 6,800 votes. The site, which has so far seen 118,332 votes cast, also has a listing of where the votes came from, and for whom.

From Afghanistan, for instance, eight people have had their say as follows:

3 votes for Ron Paul
3 votes for Hillary Clinton
2 votes for Barack Obama

Australia too favours Ron Paul, with 1,267 votes for him. The other results are as follows:

710 votes for Barack Obama
176 votes for Hillary Clinton
97 votes for Dennis Kucinich
72 votes for Mike Gravel
28 votes for John Edwards
27 votes for Rudy Giuliani
13 votes for John McCain
11 votes for Fred Thompson
8 votes for Mitt Romney
5 votes for Chris Dodd
4 votes for Joe Biden
4 votes for Mike Huckabee
4 votes for Bill Richardson
3 votes for Sam Brownback
3 votes for Tom Tancredo
2 votes for Duncan Hunter
2 votes for Ralph Nader

For a full listing of how people in other countries have voted, click here.

What if we all voted? is yet another site, operating on the same principle. The site describes itself as:

a simple poll* of who the world would vote for in the upcoming US presidential election… if they could.

Obama leads the polls on this site and the full results can be found here.